“January 2003 was well below average, the 28th coldest and 11th driest January in
Illinois since 1895, but temperatures for the winter as a whole are near average. Statewide
temperatures in January averaged 22.0 degrees (2.8 degrees below average), and precipitation
was 0.72 inches (37 percent of average),” says State Climatologist Jim Angel of the Illinois State
Water Survey (http://www.sws.uiuc.edu), a division of the Illinois Department of Natural
Resources.
Winter is now two-thirds over, and colder January temperatures negated warm
temperatures in December. December–January temperatures averaged 27.1 degrees, just 0.2
degrees below average.
“Temperatures ranged from -15 degrees at Congerville on January 27, the coldest reading,
to 71 degrees at Grand Tower on January 9, the warmest reading,” says Angel.
Precipitation has been below average since September, especially in northern Illinois,
which received just 1.55 inches (42 percent of average) in December–January, 2.24 inches (35
percent of average) in November–January, and 6.62 inches (53 percent of average) in
September–January).“Statewide, December–January totals were 3.03 inches (66 percent of
average and 21st driest since 1895), November–January totals were 4.09 inches (52 percent of
average and 12th driest since 1895), and September–January totals were 9.15 inches (65 percent
of average and 13th driest since 1895),” continues Angel.
“The latest U.S. Drought Monitor (http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html)
indicates the northern half of Illinois is in moderate drought, the first of four levels of drought. A
band across north-central Illinois is in severe drought, the second level. The National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center
(http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/seasonal_drought.html) expects this
area of drought to persist through April and expand southward into south-central Illinois. This
outlook is based on the tendency for a dry spring at the end of El Niño events, a relationship that
may not apply this spring because this event has been weak.
“Timing and intensity determine a drought’s environmental effects, but there have been
relatively few impacts because this drought’s core has not been during the growing season.
Historical data for Illinois indicate only a 26 percent chance of a dry spring after a dry
September–January so there is a is a fair chance of soil moisture recovery this spring,” concludes
Angel.