Illinois Economy and the Energy Market. James M. Kendell, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC 20585

By 2020 the U.S. energy production picture is expected to be substantially different from 1970. The United States produced 62 quadrillion Btu of energy in 1970; in 2020 the United States is expected to produce 86 quads of energy, according to the Annual Energy Outlook 2001. Natural gas is expected to overtake coal as the number one domestic source of energy production. And renewable energy is expected to once again exceed nuclear energy as a source of energy. Not all U.S. energy comes from domestic production, however. In 1970, some 8 quadrillion Btu were imported, mainly in the form of oil. By 2020, however, 45 quads are expected to be imported, still mainly oil, but also a significant amount of natural gas. Thus, American dependence on imported oil and gas is expected to increase substantially over the next 20 years. U.S. energy consumption was just 66 quads in 1970 and is expected to increase to 127 quads in 2020--an increase of more than 90 percent in 50 years. Petroleum is expected to remain the number one fuel over the next 20 years, as it has been the last 30 years.

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