FUTURE CLIMATE IN ILLINOIS

AGENDA

INTRODUCTION

ROLE OF THE STATE WATER SURVEY

CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE

Global Temperature and CO2 Levels

Painting Pictures About Future Climate

UNCERTAINTY

GROWING SENSITIVITY TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE

Confluence of the Illinois, Mississippi and Missouri Rivers

RECENT MAJOR LOSSES IN ILLINOIS

Midwest Storms with > $100 million property damage

QUESTIONS WE WERE ASKED

SOCIETAL FACTORS LEADING TO INCREASED VULNERABILITY TO EXTREMES

The growth of the Chicago Metropolitan area from 1830 to 1990

Natural disasters cost money – yours

CLIMATE HISTORY: USING THE PAST AS A GUIDE TO THE FUTURE

Pleistocene glacial ice sheets

11,000 years ago

Prairie fire

Annual Temperature – Illinois

Illinois Temperature and CO2 Levels

Temperature trends for the U.S. in degrees Fahrenheit

Inconsistency between eastern USA cooling and global model warming

Annual Precipitation for Illinois

Harbor Beach, MI

Increase in Precipitation in Mid-latitudes in 20th Century

Reconstruct Historical Climates

16th Century “Mega Drought”

Hottest Month – July 1936

HUMAN-INDUCED CLIMATE CHANGE: HOW LARGE WILL THIS BE?

CO2 Concentration in Global Atmosphere

NATURAL GREENHOUSE EFFECT

HUMAN-INDUCED  CLIMATE CHANGE

SOME HUMAN ACTIVITIES CAN COOL CLIMATE

Global Climate Models (GCMs)

SOME CLIMATE CHANGE “DRIVERS” TO 2100 (IPCC)

Global Climate Model Projections, Annual Temperatures – Illinois

Global Climate Model Projections, Annual Precipitation – Illinois

Model Simplifications and Uncertainties

Future Economic Impacts to U.S. Agriculture as Estimated Using Two Climate Models

CLIMATE IN ILLINOIS IN 2040 AND BEYOND

RANGE OF POSSIBLE FUTURE CLIMATIC CONDITIONS BASED ON THE PAST

THE PAST AS A GUIDE TO THE FUTURE

THE PAST AS A GUIDE TO THE FUTURE

A PLAN FOR REDUCING UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FUTURE CLIMATE OF ILLINOIS

Regional climate model

Regional climate model – resolution

Global climate model – resolution grid of U.S.

Global climate model – resolution grid of Illinois

Regional climate model – resolution grid of Illinois

Regional Climate Model Skill: Daily Fluctuations

How will regional climate modeling reduce uncertainties

Challenges

More Challenges

Cooperative efforts

Key Points

THE END

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